FW: [IP] It's not as though nobody knew it was coming

-----Original Message-----
From: David Farber <dave@farber.net>
Date: Friday, Sep 2, 2005 6:31 am
Subject: [IP] It's not as though nobody knew it was coming

Begin forwarded message:

From: George Sadowsky <george.sadowsky@attglobal.net>
Date: September 1, 2005 11:57:25 PM EDT
To: dave@farber.net
Subject: It's not as though nobody knew it was coming

Dave - for IP if you wish.

http://www.hurricane.lsu.edu/_in_the_news/houston.htm

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Houston Chronicle December 1, 2001

KEEPING ITS HEAD ABOVE WATER
New Orleans faces doomsday scenario

By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2001 Houston Chronicle Science Writer

New Orleans is sinking.

And its main buffer from a hurricane, the
protective Mississippi River delta, is quickly
eroding away, leaving the historic city perilously
close to disaster.

So vulnerable, in fact, that earlier this year the
Federal Emergency Management Agency ranked the
potential damage to New Orleans as among the three
likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing
this country.

The other two? A massive earthquake in San
Francisco, and, almost prophetically, a terrorist
attack on New York City.

The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the
deadliest of all.

In the face of an approaching storm, scientists
say, the city's less-than-adequate evacuation
routes would strand 250,000 people or more, and
probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city
drowned under 20 feet of water. Thousands of
refugees could land in Houston.

Economically, the toll would be shattering.

Southern Louisiana produces one-third of the
country's seafood, one-fifth of its oil and one-
quarter of its natural gas. The city's tourism,
lifeblood of the French Quarter, would cease to
exist. The Big Easy might never recover.

And, given New Orleans' precarious perch, some
academics wonder if it should be rebuilt at all.

It's been 36 years since Hurricane Betsy buried
New Orleans 8 feet deep. Since then a
deteriorating ecosystem and increased development
have left the city in an ever more precarious
position. Yet the problem went unaddressed for
decades by a laissez-faire government, experts
said.

"To some extent, I think we've been lulled to
sleep," said Marc Levitan, director of Louisiana
State University's hurricane center.

Hurricane season ended Friday, and for the second
straight year no hurricanes hit the United States.
But the season nonetheless continued a long-term
trend of more active seasons, forecasters said.
Tropical Storm Allison became this country's most
destructive tropical storm ever.

Yet despite the damage Allison wrought upon
Houston, dropping more than 3 feet of water in
some areas, a few days later much of the city
returned to normal as bloated bayous drained into
the Gulf of Mexico.

The same storm dumped a mere 5 inches on New
Orleans, nearly overwhelming the city's pump
system. If an Allison-type storm were to strike
New Orleans, or a Category 3 storm or greater with
at least 111 mph winds, the results would be
cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said.

"Any significant water that comes into this city
is a dangerous threat," Walter Maestri, Jefferson
Parish emergency management director, told
Scientific American for an October article.
"Even though I have to plan for it, I don't even
want to think about the loss of life a huge
hurricane would cause."

New Orleans is essentially a bowl ringed by levees
that protect the city from the Mississippi River
to its south and Lake Pontchartrain to the north.
The bottom of the bowl is 14 feet below sea level,
and efforts to keep it dry are only digging a
deeper hole.

During routine rainfalls the city's dozens of
pumps push water uphill into the lake. This, in
turn, draws water from the ground, further drying
the ground and sinking it deeper, a problem known
as subsidence.

This problem also faces Houston as water wells
have sucked the ground dry. Houston's solution is
a plan to convert to surface drinking water. For
New Orleans, eliminating pumping during a rainfall
is not an option, so the city continues to sink.

A big storm, scientists said, would likely block
four of five evacuation routes long before it hit.
Those left behind would have no power or
transportation, and little food or medicine, and
no prospects for a return to normal any time soon.

"The bowl would be full," Levitan said. "There's
simply no place for the water to drain."

Estimates for pumping the city dry after a huge
storm vary from six to 16 weeks. Hundreds of
thousands would be homeless, their residences
destroyed.

The only solution, scientists, politicians and
other Louisiana officials agree, is to take large-
scale steps to minimize the risks, such as
rebuilding the protective delta.

Every two miles of marsh between New Orleans and
the Gulf reduces a storm surge -- which in some
cases is 20 feet or higher -- by half a foot.

In 1990, the Breaux Act, named for its author,
Sen. John Breaux, D-La., created a task force of
several federal agencies to address the severe
wetlands loss in coastal Louisiana. The act has
brought about $40 million a year for wetland
restoration projects, but it hasn't been enough.

"It's kind of been like trying to give aspirin to
a cancer patient," said Len Bahr, director of
Louisiana Gov. Mike Foster's coastal activities
office.

The state loses about 25 square miles of land a
year, the equivalent of about one football field
every 15 minutes. The fishing industry, without
marshes, swamps and fertile wetlands, could lose a
projected $37 billion by the year 2050.

University of New Orleans researchers studied the
impact of Breaux Act projects on the vanishing
wetlands and estimated that only 2 percent of the
loss has been averted. Clearly, Bahr said, there
is a need for something much bigger. There is some
evidence this finally may be happening.

A consortium of local, state and federal agencies
is studying a $2 billion to $3 billion plan to
divert sediment from the Mississippi River back
into the delta. Because the river is leveed all
the way to the Gulf, where sediment is dumped into
deep water, nothing is left to replenish the
receding delta.

Other possible projects include restoration of
barrier reefs and perhaps a large gate to prevent
Lake Pontchartrain from overflowing and drowning
the city.

All are multibillion-dollar projects. A plan to
restore the Florida Everglades attracted $4
billion in federal funding, but the state had to
match it dollar for dollar. In Louisiana, so far,
there's only been a willingness to match 15 or 25
cents.

"Our state still looks for a 100 percent federal
bailout, but that's just not going to happen,"
said University of New Orleans geologist Shea
Penland, a delta expert.

"We have an image and credibility problem. We have
to convince our country that they need to take us
seriously, that they can trust us to do a science-
based restoration program."
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